Pressure that is forming but the market has not yet priced.
US Macro Risk
A $1.7 trillion lending market has never faced a recession. Loans are valued by formula, not by trades—so losses can stay hidden for over a year, then hit all at once. The 2009 comparison saw defaults peak at 10.4%.
US Macro Risk
Pandemic aid is ending while pension and Medicaid bills keep rising. Most states cannot borrow to stall, opening a yearly budget gap near $62 billion. The cuts hit schools, roads, and the health insurers states pay.
US Macro Risk
AI is demanding power faster than the grid can deliver. New power lines take 13 years; 19 of 25 regions already face reliability risk. The likely bill: $17-19 billion a year.
US Macro Risk
The Colorado River legally owes more water than it carries, and the deal sharing it expires in 2026. Farms, chip plants, and data centers all need a piece — and the lawsuits are just starting.
US Macro Risk
73 million aging Americans need care just as nurses and home aides disappear. We estimate the shortage costs $28.3 billion a year. Higher pay won't fix a pipeline problem that compounds for a decade.