Carmakers and the phone giants are seizing the screen in your car — and they earn more pushing their own services than the radio dial. We estimate about $586 million of in-car radio and satellite revenue is at risk each year.
Carmakers and the phone giants are taking control of the screen in your car, and they make more money by promoting their own paid services than by keeping the radio button easy to find. General Motors plans to remove Apple CarPlay and Android Auto from every vehicle by 2028; Apple's CarPlay Ultra is moving to take over all driver screens from 2025; and car-built systems are spreading. We estimate about $586 million of in-car radio and satellite revenue is at risk each year (range $413 million to $810 million, about 4.69% of a $12.5 billion business).
The market underprices this because cars last roughly 12 years, so the damage builds slowly and looks distant. But radio is the car, and the car still hosts 29% of all US listening.
iHeartMedia and Cumulus Media depend heavily on AM/FM, which is 85% of paid in-car audio advertising. Sirius XM Holdings, expecting about $8.5 billion in 2025 revenue, sits in 81% of new vehicles whose dashboards carmakers now want to own. Townsquare Media and Audacy face the same shrinking front-row spot.
Why this matters. Carmakers and the phone giants are seizing control of the screen in your car, and they make more money steering you toward their own paid services than toward AM/FM or satellite radio. That threatens the single biggest place people still listen to live radio — the driver's seat. Lenders, owners, and investors in radio and satellite audio should treat the dashboard as a slowly closing door, not a permanent home.
Blindside · Podcasting & Audio
Carmakers Take Over the Dashboard
The companies replacing the radio dial want to bury it.
Building
75
Blindside index
What drives it — drag to test
each slider starts at our cited estimate — drag to see the range
In-car radio and satellite revenue lost each year7%
Sourced — Apple's new dashboard, car-built systems, and GM dropping phone projection by 2028 grab the screen; gradual as fleets turn over.
Listeners drifting to streaming once it is the default55%
Our judgment — no hard proof, but when the radio button is buried and streaming is front-and-center, in-car listening drifts away.
Carmakers pushing their own paid screens+12%
Sourced — GM wants 20%-plus profit margins on its own dashboard software by 2030, so it favors its own services over outside radio.
Time to impact
2–6 yearsBuilding
now3 yrs7+ yrs
When the financial hit begins to land, on our read.
How to read this. Drag any slider to test your own number — the chart and index update live. The likelihood and the locked facts stay put.
Yearly in-car radio and satellite revenue at risk
$585m4.68% of sector
Dark line = most likely · faint lines = low–high (8 in 10 outcomes land between) · shaded band = what outside analysts expect
Our estimate lands within what outside analysts expect ✓
Chance this is a permanent shift, not a blip
62%
Average of five independent reads (range 50–72%):
The track record68%
When a platform owner controls the default screen, the businesses relying on prominence lose share — even with a better product.
How it works72%
Carmakers and Apple and Google make money by owning the dashboard and pushing outside radio aside; GM is already doing it.
The skeptic's case50%
Radio still owns 85% of in-car ad audio, the button is sticky, Apple's new system is stalling, and SiriusXM is entering Tesla.
What GM's plan shows66%
GM's stated goal of 20%-plus margins on its own dashboard reveals the motive to reshape audio against today's players.
How slowly cars change56%
Cars stay on the road about 12 years, so new dashboards are a minority for years, pushing the hit further out.
Fixed — the sliders change the size of the hit, not the odds it's permanent.
Why this matters
Carmakers and the phone giants are seizing control of the screen in your car, and they make more money steering you toward their own paid services than toward AM/FM or satellite radio. That threatens the single biggest place people still listen to live radio — the driver's seat. Lenders, owners, and investors in radio and satellite audio should treat the dashboard as a slowly closing door, not a permanent home.
Most exposed companies
iHeartMedia IHRT · Cumulus Media CMLS · Sirius XM Holdings SIRI · Townsquare Media TSQ · Audacy AUDA
🔒
The facts — locked
measured, not editable
85%
AM/FM radio is 85% of paid-for in-car audio advertising
Edison / Westwood One Q2 2025
56%
AM/FM radio is 56% of all in-car listening
Edison Share of Ear
29%
29% of all US audio listening happens in the car
Edison Share of Ear
by 2028
By 2028, GM removes Apple CarPlay and Android Auto from every vehicle
GM / DealershipGuy
~$8.5bn
SiriusXM expects about $8.5 billion in 2025 revenue (in 81% of new vehicles)
SIRI guidance / Billboard
20%+
GM targets profit margins above 20% on its new dashboard businesses by 2030
GM investor guidance
Ultra
Apple's CarPlay Ultra takes over every driver screen, starting 2025
Apple / Gadget Hacks
Attention is falling while the impact compounds. the blind spot is widening, not closing.
We estimate connected-car dashboard changes put about $586 million of in-car radio and satellite revenue at risk each year (range $413 million to $810 million, or 4.69% of the $12.5 billion base). The push comes from carmakers and screen owners — GM dropping Apple CarPlay and Android Auto by 2028, Apple's CarPlay Ultra taking over driver screens, and car-built Android systems spreading — each with clear financial reasons to sideline today's radio and satellite players. We assess a 62% chance this is a permanent shift, with a Blindside index of 75 out of 100.
