TV & Streaming
The Cable Fee Engine Stalls
Broadcasters' cable fees were a growth engine. Now pay-TV homes are falling 5.8% a year and price hikes can't keep up. A $1.2 billion yearly shortfall is hiding inside forecasts that still expect growth.
Blindside
The threats nobody is pricing — structural dangers hiding in plain sight, across 20 sectors of daily life and the economy. A live model, the most-exposed companies, and a plain why-it-matters for each.
TV & Streaming
Streaming Becomes a Rental Habit
Young viewers now rent streaming one show at a time — subscribe, binge, cancel, repeat. Monthly cancellations have nearly tripled since 2019, quietly repricing $2.9bn of yearly revenue that services still value as if subscribers stay.
TV & Streaming
TV Operating Systems Become Tollbooths
The companies that run your smart-TV menu — Roku, Amazon, Samsung — have turned the home screen into a tollbooth, taking an estimated $2.6bn a year from the people who make and stream the shows.
Blindside
Blindside Weekly
4 structural threats the market isn't pricing — and where each one sits on the scale.
TV & Streaming
Local Sports TV Money Collapses
Regional sports networks are collapsing, and the deals replacing them pay about half as much. We estimate $1.3bn of local-sports TV value destroyed each year — but team valuations still assume the old money.
US Macro Risk
America's Safety Nets Are Fraying at Once
A dozen structural cracks are hitting the US economy at once — and they are feeding each other. This week's cards map where the breaks are widest and who has no cushion left.
US Macro Risk
Social Security Cuts Itself in 2033
Social Security's retirement fund empties in 2033, cutting checks 21% automatically—no vote needed. Medicare's hospital fund follows in 2036 with an 11% cut. That is roughly $280 billion a year stripped from 67 million retirees.
US Macro Risk
Insurance Loss Breaks Home Sales
Insurers are walking away from more homes — and a house no one will insure is a house no bank will finance. We see about $228.9 billion in home value at risk each year as the problem spreads inland.
Blindside
Blindside Weekly
5 structural threats the market isn't pricing — and where each one sits on the scale.
US Macro Risk
Private Credit's First Real Downturn
A $1.7 trillion lending market has never faced a recession. Loans are valued by formula, not by trades—so losses can stay hidden for over a year, then hit all at once. The 2009 comparison saw defaults peak at 10.4%.
US Macro Risk
States Run Out of Money to Cut
Pandemic aid is ending while pension and Medicaid bills keep rising. Most states cannot borrow to stall, opening a yearly budget gap near $62 billion. The cuts hit schools, roads, and the health insurers states pay.
US Macro Risk
The Power Grid Can't Keep Up
AI is demanding power faster than the grid can deliver. New power lines take 13 years; 19 of 25 regions already face reliability risk. The likely bill: $17-19 billion a year.