US Macro Risk
When Americans Stop Trusting, Growth Slows
Trust in the federal government has hit a 66-year low of 31%. That doubt quietly delays investment and hiring—an estimated $135 billion a year in lost output the market hasn't priced yet.
Blindside: Imminent
Blindside threats whose effects are already measurable in the data.
US Macro Risk
Student Loan Payments Restart
The SAVE relief plan is dead, collections restart in 2025, and 9–15 million borrowers may default again. The New York Fed already measured a 5–8% spending drop. The $20 billion yearly drag is missing from most forecasts.
US Macro Risk
Bank Loans Reset at Triple the Rate
A trillion dollars in commercial property loans comes due in 2026–27, refinancing from 3–4% into 6–8%. Community and regional banks hold 70% of it — and one failure could force them all to mark down similar loans together.
US Macro Risk
Hackers Hit Aging Water, Power, Hospital Systems
Water, power, and hospital systems run on 1990s control software ransomware crews know how to break. Attacks rose 22% in a year, and the $22 billion Change Healthcare hit proved one failure can freeze whole supply chains.
US Macro Risk
Debt Interest Eats the Budget
Interest on the national debt now costs more than the military—$951 billion in 2025, heading to $1.7 trillion by 2034. There is almost nothing left in the budget to cut.