Big publishers are destroying an estimated $4.7 billion a year launching online games that mostly flop — a money pit the market still mistakes for a run of bad luck.
Big game publishers keep spending heavily to launch brand-new online games — the kind built to keep players paying for years. Most flop. Concord, Suicide Squad, Foamstars, Hyenas and Redfall all failed inside two years; Concord shut down just 14 days after launch after costing more than $250 million. Our model puts the yearly loss at $4.7 billion, about 6.22% of the $74.8 billion big-studio market, with a range of $3.3 billion to $6.3 billion.
The market still treats each flop as bad luck. It isn't: 70% of developers doubt the model lasts, yet 70% of publishers keep favouring it, because the winners are enormous — online games drive 74% of Electronic Arts' revenue.
Electronic Arts (EA) leans hardest on this model. Ubisoft (UBI) keeps committing to it year after year. Sony (SONY) already halved its lineup from 12 to 6. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) ate a $200 million write-off on Suicide Squad. Take-Two (TTWO) keeps swinging at the same crowded field.
Why this matters. Big game publishers are pouring money into online games that most developers think will fail, and the wreckage is piling up. Investors holding these stocks are exposed to repeated write-offs, while studios and the people working in them face shutdowns and layoffs. Anyone lending to or backing these companies should treat the next failed launch as likely, not surprising.
Blindside · Gaming
Big Studios Bleed Cash Chasing Online Games
Publishers keep funding online games most developers think will fail
Imminent
85
Blindside index
What drives it — drag to test
each slider starts at our cited estimate — drag to see the range
Share of big-studio money spent launching brand-new online games9%
Our judgment — 70% of big publishers favour live games, but most spend goes to existing hits, not new launches.
Share of these new online games that lose money55%
Our judgment — informal industry talk says roughly 9 in 10 fail; 70% of developers doubt the model; no official figure.
Extra losses beyond build cost: marketing and missed chances+18%
Sourced — Suicide Squad cost a $200M write-off; Concord ran $250M+ over eight years; losses run past build cost.
Time to impact
1–4 yearsImminent
now3 yrs7+ yrs
When the financial hit begins to land, on our read.
How to read this. Drag any slider to test your own number — the chart and index update live. The likelihood and the locked facts stay put.
Yearly money lost on failed online-game launches
$4.7bn6.22% of sector
Dark line = most likely · faint lines = low–high (8 in 10 outcomes land between) · shaded band = what outside analysts expect
Our estimate lands within what outside analysts expect ✓
Chance this is a permanent shift, not a blip
71%
Average of five independent reads (range 55–82%):
The track record80%
In any crowded hits-driven business, most new entrants fail; the online-game field is plainly oversupplied.
How it works82%
Concord, Suicide Squad, Foamstars, Hyenas and Redfall all flopped in two years; pipelines stay full.
The skeptic's case55%
Sony already halved its lineup; publishers are learning, and rare hits reset expectations.
The optimist's case58%
Online games drive 74% of Electronic Arts' revenue; when they work, the winners are huge.
The bear's case82%
Bosses are rewarded for swinging regardless of the odds, so the graveyard keeps filling.
Fixed — the sliders change the size of the hit, not the odds it's permanent.
Why this matters
Big game publishers are pouring money into online games that most developers think will fail, and the wreckage is piling up. Investors holding these stocks are exposed to repeated write-offs, while studios and the people working in them face shutdowns and layoffs. Anyone lending to or backing these companies should treat the next failed launch as likely, not surprising.
Most exposed companies
Electronic Arts EA · Ubisoft UBI · Sony Group SONY · Warner Bros. Discovery WBD · Take-Two Interactive TTWO
🔒
The facts — locked
measured, not editable
$200M
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League write-down
Warner Bros. Discovery (Zaslav, earnings)
~$250M+
Concord cost over ~8 yrs; shut down 14 days post-launch
industry reporting; Sony full refunds
12 -> 6
Sony halved its planned live-service slate
Sony FY24 earnings (SEC 6-K)
74%
of EA 2024 revenue from live-service — incentive to keep swinging
EA FY24 (Shacknews)
70%
of developers doubt the live-service model's sustainability
GDC / developer survey
70%
of AAA publishers prioritise live-ops over new releases (2025)
Business Research Insights
year after year
Ubisoft CEO commits to open-world + live-service pipeline
Yves Guillemot (VGC)
Attention is climbing. the market is starting to price this in — the early window is closing.
Our middle estimate is $4.7 billion in big-studio money destroyed each year by failed online-game launches (range $3.3 billion to $6.3 billion, or 6.22% of the $74.8 billion big-studio market). That lines up with known losses including Suicide Squad's $200 million write-off and Concord's $250 million-plus over eight years. With 74% of Electronic Arts' 2024 revenue tied to online games and 70% of big publishers favouring them, bosses keep funding a money pit the market still treats as a string of unlucky one-offs.
