Blindside Weekly
5 structural threats the market isn't pricing — and where each one sits on the scale.
This week on Blindside — 5 structural threats the market isn't pricing yet. The heaviest: Blockbuster Games Cost More Than They Earn, about $7.7bn/yr at risk. Here's where each one sits:
Top games now cost $300M-plus to build while the price stays at $70. Only five franchises can earn that back, leaving $7.7bn of yearly revenue at risk. The market calls it a dip — our index says it's permanent.
Blindside index 87 · about $7.7bn/yr at risk →
Microsoft says Game Pass earns $5 billion a year, but has never shown a standalone profit — and the costs it leaves out could be enormous. Our model puts $668 million a year at risk if the real numbers surface.
Blindside index 81 · about $669m/yr at risk →
Half of Roblox's developers earned $1,575 last year. The top ten averaged $33.9 million. The platform keeps 70% of every dollar — and builders now have somewhere else to go.
Blindside index 79 · about $639m/yr at risk →
The biggest online games are graying. League of Legends lost 55 million monthly players; Fortnite's US-teen reach fell to 37 percent. The original fans are aging out, and new ones cost 30 percent more to win.
Blindside index 78 · about $3.2bn/yr at risk →
China can now build $1 billion blockbuster games for $70 million. Black Myth proved it. FASTMaster sees $4.9 billion of Western game revenue a year now open to Chinese rivals — and the market hasn't priced it.
Blindside index 78 · about $4.9bn/yr at risk →
Every entry links to its live model — drag the assumptions and watch the range move. Blindside · FASTMaster Intelligence.
