Drive-thru visits are falling 5 to 8% a year and have dropped from 83% to 63% of fast-food sales since 2020 — yet the land still trades like it's scarce. About $5.1 billion of sales a year is at risk.
Fast-food chains built their empires around the car window. That window is shrinking: drive-thru visits fell 5 to 8% in 2025, and the channel's share of sales dropped from 83% in 2020 to 63–65% in 2025. One in three customers say they plan to use it less. We estimate $5.1 billion of sales a year is at risk — about 2.1% of the $245 billion sector.
The market hasn't caught up. Well-placed, long-leased sites still trade at yields below 5%, the price of a scarce, safe asset. The catch: that scarcity holds only for the best lots. Older, oversized, badly-sited buildings — built for car traffic that's draining away — face empty futures.
Starbucks (SBUX) is already closing about 500 North American stores in a $1 billion overhaul. Restaurant Brands International (QSR), Wendy's (WEN) and Jack in the Box (JACK) all lean heavily on drive-thru-built fixed locations. Agree Realty (ADC), a landlord holding fast-food ground leases, owns the land underneath — and would absorb the loss if rents fall or buildings sit empty.
Why this matters. Fast-food chains, the landlords who own their buildings, and the lenders behind them all bet that drive-thru land would keep paying premium rent forever. But car-window visits are falling 5 to 8% a year and the channel's share of sales has dropped from 83% to 63% since 2020. Older, oversized, poorly-sited buildings are most at risk of sitting empty — yet land prices still treat them as scarce and safe.
Blindside · Fast Food / QSR
The drive-thru lots stop paying
Car-window orders are shrinking; the land prices haven't caught up
Horizon
51
Blindside index
What drives it — drag to test
each slider starts at our cited estimate — drag to see the range
Sales moving from car window to delivery and dining in9%
Sourced — drive-thru fell from 83% to 63% of sales since 2020; visits down 5 to 8% a year.
Lost sales that leave a building empty18%
Our judgment — no hard proof; better drive-thru sites often re-let above the old rent (Matthews).
Lots too big for electric cars and cities+10%
Our judgment — long-dated; huge car-traffic lots clash with city, electric-car and curbside pickup trends.
Time to impact
3–8 yearsHorizon
now3 yrs7+ yrs
When the financial hit begins to land, on our read.
How to read this. Drag any slider to test your own number — the chart and index update live. The likelihood and the locked facts stay put.
Yearly rent income at risk
$5.1bn2.08% of sector
Dark line = most likely · faint lines = low–high (8 in 10 outcomes land between) · shaded band = what outside analysts expect
Our estimate lands within what outside analysts expect ✓
Chance this is a permanent shift, not a blip
44%
Average of five independent reads (range 30–55%):
The track record45%
Single-tenant retail land adapts slowly; format decay usually takes a decade, not one cycle.
How it works55%
Drive-thru share already fell 20 points; the channel these buildings were built for is permanently smaller.
The skeptic's case30%
Modern drive-thru sites are the most sought-after retail asset; chains add lanes and re-let demand offsets losses.
What land buyers pay38%
Yields below 5% on these ground leases show the market still treats them as scarce and prime.
What operators are doing52%
Starbucks' 500-store, $1 billion cull shows chains are already writing off badly-located old buildings.
Fixed — the sliders change the size of the hit, not the odds it's permanent.
Why this matters
Fast-food chains, the landlords who own their buildings, and the lenders behind them all bet that drive-thru land would keep paying premium rent forever. But car-window visits are falling 5 to 8% a year and the channel's share of sales has dropped from 83% to 63% since 2020. Older, oversized, poorly-sited buildings are most at risk of sitting empty — yet land prices still treat them as scarce and safe.
Most exposed companies
Starbucks SBUX · Restaurant Brands International QSR · Wendy's WEN · Jack in the Box JACK · Agree Realty ADC
🔒
The facts — locked
measured, not editable
63–65%
Drive-thru made up 63 to 65% of fast-food sales in 2025, down from 83% in 2020
QSR Magazine 2025 Drive-Thru Report
−5 to −8%
Drive-thru visits fell 5 to 8% in 2025 compared with the year before
RMS / QSR Magazine
1 in 3
One in three customers plan to cut how often they use the drive-thru
RMS consumer research
+13.5%
Delivery orders grew 13.5% in 2025, slower than the 18% growth in 2024
QSR Magazine / Restaurant Business
~500
Starbucks is closing about 500 North American stores in a roughly $1 billion overhaul
Restaurant Dive / company
sub-5%
Well-placed, long-leased fast-food sites still trade at yields below 5%
Westwood / Matthews (net-lease)
premium
Top-quality second-hand drive-thru sites often re-let above their previous rent
Matthews — 'When KFC Goes Dark'
Drive-thru visits are down 5 to 8% a year (RMS / QSR Magazine 2025) and the channel's share of fast-food sales has slipped from 83% to 63–65% since 2020 (QSR Magazine), yet well-placed long-leased sites still trade at yields below 5% (Westwood / Matthews) — the market is still pricing them as scarce. We model $5.1 billion of sales a year at risk, about 2.1% of the $245 billion sector, concentrated in older, oversized, badly-located buildings, not the format as a whole.
