Blindside Weekly
5 structural threats the market isn't pricing — and where each one sits on the scale.
This week on Blindside — 5 structural threats the market isn't pricing yet. The heaviest: Debt Interest Eats the Budget, about $1.10tn/yr at risk. Here's where each one sits:
Interest on the national debt now costs more than the military—$951 billion in 2025, heading to $1.7 trillion by 2034. There is almost nothing left in the budget to cut.
Blindside index 97 · about $1.10tn/yr at risk →
Water, power, and hospital systems run on 1990s control software ransomware crews know how to break. Attacks rose 22% in a year, and the $22 billion Change Healthcare hit proved one failure can freeze whole supply chains.
Blindside index 91 · about $16.3bn/yr at risk →
A trillion dollars in commercial property loans comes due in 2026–27, refinancing from 3–4% into 6–8%. Community and regional banks hold 70% of it — and one failure could force them all to mark down similar loans together.
Blindside index 74 · about $47.2bn/yr at risk →
The SAVE relief plan is dead, collections restart in 2025, and 9–15 million borrowers may default again. The New York Fed already measured a 5–8% spending drop. The $20 billion yearly drag is missing from most forecasts.
Blindside index 56 · about $20.1bn/yr at risk →
Trust in the federal government has hit a 66-year low of 31%. That doubt quietly delays investment and hiring—an estimated $135 billion a year in lost output the market hasn't priced yet.
Blindside index 49 · about $151.5bn/yr at risk →
Every entry links to its live model — drag the assumptions and watch the range move. Blindside · FASTMaster Intelligence.
