How the modern game is played — the low block, the press, set-pieces — and what the data says about what actually wins.
World Cup
Tactical style doesn't fade internationally. One style just goes missing. Positional beats Low-Block 66.6% of the time at club level and 63.5% for nations — but 69 club team-seasons ran the Gegenpress, and the entire international dataset holds 16 matches involving it.
World Cup
Possession smothers the press, the press exploits the low block, the low block frustrates possession. Across 4,026 same-tier matchups, one leg holds — Positional beats Low-Block 67% — but the other two run backwards at 39% and 41%, so the loop never closes.
World Cup
Across 16,106 matches the actual draw rate sat half a point off the implied rate. Then a high press meets a possession side: 30.6% draw, against 23.8% priced, and the calm average falls apart.
World Cup
Boss the ball and you win 56.8% of group games. Then the bracket starts and it drops to 50.6% — a coin flip. Across 314 tracked matches, even a commanding possession edge returns exactly 50.0% once the opponents are your equals.