Analysis of the English Premier League — promotion, relegation, structural advantages, and why the league looks the way it does.
Premier League
Shoot well in the Championship and you survive at 58%. Shoot badly and you survive at 57%. It's a coin flip. Across 40 promotions since 2009-10, survivors concede 0.52 more goals per game in the Premier League and the relegated concede 1.09. The wall is defensive.
Premier League
A name-blind algorithm watched 28 clubs across 95 regime changes and flagged 31 major falls. Only 16 ever climbed back — Norwich in 50 months, Ipswich stuck below their old level for 282 and counting.
World Cup
The favourite wins barely half the time, and the league everyone calls unpredictable is the most orderly of all. Across 16,110 matches the Premier League denies the favourite in 46.0% of games; Ligue 1 does it in 49.1%. The richest clubs buy the least drama.